China
In the morning, China's inflation data in March both fell back. The data showed that China's March CPI was 2.1%, expected 2.6%, and the previous value was 2.9%. China's March CPI annual rate was higher than 2% for two consecutive months. China's PP I in March was 3.1%, expected 3.3%, and the previous value was 3.7%.
According to the interpretation of the National Bureau of Statistics, the CPI has changed from a rise to a decline last month, which is mainly affected by the “festival factorâ€. The decline in PPI growth was dragged down by non-metallic mining, black, petroleum and coal processing, oil and gas exploration, and nonferrous metals.
City Bureau of the National Bureau of Statistics: Despite the current fluctuations in the foreign economic environment and the adjustment of domestic supply and demand, there will be some fluctuations in the price operation. However, there is a basis for the overall stable operation of prices in the recent period. From the perspective of agricultural product supply, China's modern agricultural production improves quality and efficiency, grain production has been harvested year after year, and the supply of bulk agricultural products is sufficient to meet the needs of the consumer market. From the perspective of industrial product supply, whether it is general industrial consumer goods or durable consumer goods, With ample supply capacity, especially with the continuous advancement of supply-side structural reforms, the supply capacity of high-end industrial consumer goods is also constantly improving; from the perspective of service product supply, although it is currently the area where prices are rising rapidly, it is also the demand potential. Larger areas, but supply capacity is also growing. Based on the above factors, the overall stability of prices in the recent period is conditional and there are sufficient supply guarantees.
At the Boao Forum yesterday, President Xi Jinping said: China will greatly relax market access. China does not aim at pursuing a trade surplus and sincerely hopes to expand imports and promote the balance of current account balance. This year, we will reduce vehicle import tariffs considerably, while reducing import tariffs on some other products. We will re-establish the State Intellectual Property Office, improve the enforcement of law enforcement, and significantly increase the cost of illegal activities. We encourage Chinese and foreign companies to carry out normal technical exchanges and cooperation to protect the legitimate intellectual property rights of foreign-funded enterprises in China.
United States
The US dollar index closed down 0.23% on Tuesday at 89.62. The US PPI announced in March increased by 0.3% in March, with the core PPI rising by 2.7% year-on-year, the highest since September 2011, but far from being a bullish catalyst for the US dollar.
The Fed will announce that the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting are about to strike. The Fed made a preference for hawkish remarks at the March policy meeting. The latest dot matrix shows that only one official disapproved of “rate-by-quarter rate hikesâ€. This meeting minutes may provide more evidence to illustrate this optimistic, more hawkish wording that is expected to provide support for the dollar.
Sino-US trade wars have eased.
On April 10, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced in an important keynote speech at the Boao Forum for Asia 2018 Annual Meeting: China will take the initiative to expand imports. Domestic demand is the basic driving force for China's economic development and an inevitable requirement to meet the people's growing needs for a better life. China does not aim at pursuing a trade surplus and sincerely hopes to expand imports and promote the balance of current account balance.
Trump said that he is very grateful to President Xi Jinping for his statement on trade issues such as tariffs at the Boao Forum. Local time 10 Japan Tuesday, Trump posted on Twitter, thanking President Xi for his friendly speech on tariffs and auto (trade) barriers, and his inspiring remarks on intellectual property and technology transfer. We will make great progress together.
In an interview with Radio Broadcasting Corporation (NPR), White House Trade Advisor Navarro said that the Sino-US trade negotiations are still open, and the United States hopes to balance trade between the two countries. Navarro added that there is still controversy over whether the tariff threat will harm the market.
The conflict resurfaced and the US aircraft carrier drove to the Middle East.
On April 11, the US Navy said that the United States will dispatch the "Truman" aircraft carrier to the Middle East and Europe on Wednesday (11th). In addition, the European Aviation Safety Organization issued an early warning to remind pilots in the Eastern Mediterranean that missiles may be attacked by Syria in the next 72 hours.
Europe
On Tuesday, European Central Bank Management Committee Novotny said that the European Central Bank may raise the deposit rate from -0.4% to -0.2% when starting to raise interest rates, and expects to end the purchase of bonds this year, and the euro will rise in short-term. But then the ECB spokesman clarified that this was not the consensus of the management committee, and the euro fell rapidly.
Earlier, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Monday that the stock market fell this year and has yet to bring a substantial impact on the financial situation in the euro zone. This shows that policymakers remain calm in the face of recent market volatility. Draghi’s speech boosted the euro.
"We must remember that Trump's protectionist and anti-globalization positions will not change overnight. His goal is to win the 2020 election, and the market may soon have significant fluctuations," Ruisui Bank's chief market economy Said Daisuke Karakama.
Other markets
As China eased the tension in trade disputes and the situation in Syria escalated, international oil prices rose more than 3% on Tuesday, and Brent crude broke the $71 mark for the first time in two weeks. NYMEX US WTI crude oil futures contract closed up 3.6% to $65.57 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures contract closed up 3.5% at $71/barrel.
Reuters analysis said that the rise in oil prices was driven by the situation in the Middle East. Trump pledged to respond quickly to the Syrian chemical attack. As Iran supports the Syrian government, Trump’s response may push the US to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear agreement and implement it against Iran. New sanctions, which in turn hurt the Iranian oil industry; oil prices have rebounded as the oil market has speculated more and more between Trump and Syria.
At the same time, according to Bloomberg News, Saudi Arabia hinted that it hopes to achieve an oil price of 80 US dollars in order to support the government's policy agenda and energy giant Saudi Aramco's IPO, the report once led to a rapid rise in oil prices.
Crude oil prices have risen nearly 5% in the last two trading days, regaining most of the decline last week. At present, investors' focus is on the upcoming US crude oil inventory report, as the US crude oil production problem remains the worry of analysts and traders.
The EIA short-term energy outlook report released overnight showed that US crude oil production is expected to stabilize this year, with an expected 10.69 million barrels per day, which was previously expected to be 10.7 million barrels per day, but will increase production forecast for next year from 11.27 million barrels per day to 11.44 million. Barrel/Day, while raising the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2018 is expected to increase by 90,000 barrels per day to 1.79 million barrels per day, and the global growth rate of crude oil demand in 2019 is expected to increase by 130,000 barrels to 1.85 million barrels per day.
In the early morning of Wednesday, the US crude oil inventories recorded an increase of 1.758 million barrels to 429.1 million barrels in the week of April 6th, which is expected to increase by only 220,000 barrels. At the same time, Cushing's stocks increased by 1.452 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 2.005 million barrels, but refined oil stocks decreased by 3.849 million barrels. After the data was released, the US and the two oils fell slightly. Tonight at 22:30, EIA crude oil inventories will be released from the US to April 6th, which is expected to increase by 220,000 barrels. The previous value is a decrease of 4.617 million barrels.
technical analysis
Copper: Boosted by the surge in crude oil, overnight copper and Shanghai copper main force rose together. On the technical level, Lun copper broke through the 40-day moving average and the 60-day moving average. Today's opening also stands above the 60-day moving average. The main force of Shanghai copper is between the 20th and the 40th moving average, and the upside is wide. It is estimated that today's copper is 6930~6990 US dollars / ton, Shanghai copper main force 51000 ~ 51500 yuan / ton. In terms of spot, as the disk further pulled up, the willingness of the holders to sell the price was not reduced, and the willingness to receive the goods was improved. It is expected that the spot price will rise by 20~80 yuan/ton today.
Aluminium: In the short-term background of the weak US dollar and the Rusal Aluminum incident, Lun Aluminum still has certain operational capabilities, and continues to pay attention to the news reports related to the Rusal incident. It is expected to run at 2185-2235 USD/ton today. In the short-term, Shanghai Aluminum can still maintain its strength under the external disk, and there is still some pressure in the medium-term fundamentals. It is expected that the Shanghai aluminum main contract will run at 14400~14550 yuan/ton today, and the spot discount is 110~70 yuan/ton.
Lead: Overnight, Shanghai lead main 1805 contract opened at 18,490 yuan / ton, affected by the overall strong non-ferrous metals, the Shanghai lead to the early 18,545 yuan / ton, after the pressure of 18,500 yuan, the shock fell back, near the close, Shanghai Lead once again rose above 18,500 yuan, climbing 18,560 yuan first line, and finally closed at 18,520 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton, or 0.16%. Shanghai lead reported to the Xiaoyang line, suspending the continuous downward trend, and the day may be shocked at 18,500 yuan.
Zinc: Zinc-zinc red heart lifted and punctured the 5-day line pressure. This morning, Zinc-Zinc opened higher and lower, recording a long Yin column, highlighting the upward pressure. Len Zinc still lacks absolute favorable support, and the day or weak operation At around $3220-3270/ton. During the night session, Shanghai Zinc recorded a long shadow and the center of gravity was lifted. The overall situation was first suppressed and then raised. The contradictions between the long and the short sides were not alleviated. Under the short-term control of market sentiment, the Shanghai zinc will continue to run on 24250. -24,750 yuan / ton. Material 0# ordinary zinc is 30-60 for May premium and 40-60 for double Yansheng.
Tin: Lunxi maintains a pressure fluctuation trend, with support below $20,600/ton and upper resistance at $21,300/ton. Last night, the trend of Shanghai's tin was once again tested, and the lowest hit near the 10-day moving average. The overall trend is still under pressure. Today's main operating range is expected to be 143,500-145,000 yuan / ton. In the spot market, the futures price will continue to drag down the spot price, and today it is expected to be 143,500-145,000 yuan/ton.
Nickel: The Chinese side released a moderate attitude overnight. The Sino-US trade war sentiment improved and the dollar weakened to boost basic metals. Focus on China's inflation data and US CPI data. Nickel stocks continued to decline, and it is expected that today's nickel will be strong and volatile. It is expected that today's Shanghai nickel main contract 1807 operation range is 100500~102500 yuan/ton, and the spot price is 100000~102000 yuan/ton.
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