Huitong.com May 18th - Thursday (May 18th), the market's eyes are still focused on the progress of Trump's "Leak Door". The global financial market has been greatly affected in the previous trading day, spot gold It is more than 20 dollars, and how to interpret the market outlook, please see the analysis below.
Note 1: This strategy is biased towards technical analysis. In terms of fundamentals, readers should also pay attention to the analysis articles of Huitong.com on market hotspots; admission points and positions need to be adjusted as appropriate; any time there will be multiple variables, this strategy is mainly It is a case where the probability is relatively large.
Note 2: Due to the website page update, the article does not support the internal language update. The spot silver, crude oil and copper technology are expected to be released from 12:00 to 13:00; the foreign exchange trading strategy is expected to be released from 14:00-16:00.
★ May 18th market hotspot
1. The fermentation situation of Trump's “Left Doorâ€, whether the European and American stock markets continue to decline is also worthy of attention.
Before the election, investors expected Trump to represent uncertainty, and the market now realizes that some of their concerns in October are becoming a reality. Investors are increasingly worried that the US President Trump’s allegations will delay his efforts to cut taxes and increase infrastructure spending. Trump may face the toughest time since he took office; investors are still assessing the consequences and The Fed’s prospects for a rate hike in June.
The Washington Post and the New York Times and other media have repeatedly published bad news about President Trump, threatening Trump’s tax cuts, the abolition of the Obamacare bill, and regulatory reforms. The investor’s fear is that the president may have blocked the administration of justice, which may lead to impeachment.
The US Department of Justice announced that former FB I director Miller MU eller was appointed as a special prosecutor to lead the investigation into Russia's attempt to influence the US presidential election. The US Senate Judiciary Committee asked the FBI and the White House to provide an interactive memo related to former FBI director Komi.
Trump said that no politicians in history have suffered worse and more unfair treatment than him; the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Ryan, still believes in Trump and said that it is necessary to find out the facts and make judgments. Rep. Al Green, a Democrat from Texas, plans to call on Trump to be impeached on May 18.
US stock market S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded their biggest one-day drop in eight months on the previous trading day, as there were reports that President Trump tried to intervene in a federal investigation to reduce taxes and other economic incentives. The hope of cooling down, sounding an alarm to Wall Street.
US 10-year bond yields were the lowest since April 21, the biggest one-day drop since July; the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in June has fallen from 100% to 82.5%. The US dollar index once again refreshed the new low to 99.33, erasing all the gains after Trump's election, the longest losing streak in late March; but some traders said that traders said that short-term accounts are the main driver of the dollar's decline. And long-term investors are more cautious about killing the dollar.
It is also worth noting that former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the US economy is expected to continue to maintain moderate growth, but given that the unemployment rate is close to the lowest level that can be achieved, there is limited room for economic growth.
2. Progress in the Brexit negotiations in the UK
The latest news from foreign media is that the UK has asked for secret retreats, and the EU has insisted on transparent negotiations, suggesting that the EU's attitude is still tough. It remains to be seen that the pound’s energy resistance against the dollar’s ​​energy has yet to be seen.
EU Council President Tusk said in a meeting with members of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, on Wednesday that Britain chose to conclude a free trade agreement with the EU, but even if the agreement is ambitious and wide-ranging, it will obviously not mean that the UK is involved. A single market or some parts of it; the UK must be aware that any free trade agreement must ensure a level playing field and include provisions to protect against unfair competitive advantage, net worth, and information.
The EU's Brexit chief negotiator Barnier said that he hopes to start the Brexit negotiations on the day after the British general election; there is no intention to eventually reach an agreement with the UK, hoping to reach an agreement with the UK; the EU has not set a good British The cost that needs to be paid before the European Union;
3. Fermentation status of EIA crude oil inventory report, OPEC dynamics
The overnight EIA crude oil inventory report showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 1.75 million barrels last week to 520.8 million barrels, the lowest level since February. Although crude oil inventories fell less than expected, capacity utilization increased sharply, indicating the demand for crude oil in the next few weeks. Will increase. US crude oil production fell by 9,000 barrels per day to 9.31 million barrels, the first decline since 12 weeks of continuous increase.
At present, the market has increased confidence in the oil market to gradually restore supply balance, and OPEC Germany's major oil producers are still working hard for this, the United States will usher in the summer consumption season, is expected to help oil prices continue to rise.
4. Speech by many officials of the European Central Bank
Against the background that the euro against the US dollar continues to rise and the economic data is relatively optimistic, the market is increasingly concerned about whether the European Central Bank will release the signal of tightening policy in June. The speeches of the European Central Bank Management Committee and the Executive Committee in the past two days deserve attention. At 00:00 on the morning of the 19th, there was a speech by ECB President Draghi.
★Review of historical strategy: As of 7:00 on May 18, the conservative strategy and aggressive strategy performed poorly on the previous day, but it is understandable that the short-selling and strong support positions are short-selling; the super-radical strategy is still relatively optimistic.
Although the reminder focuses on the fermentation of Trump's “Breakgateâ€, the interpretation of the hotspot is basically correct, but the fermentation of market sentiment is still astounding. “Trump Quotes†seems to have evolved into “Trump Panicâ€. .
1. Spot gold: The technical analysis section basically predicts the general trend of the market, but the conservative strategy waits or waits for an empty order of about 1245, with a stop loss of about $3; the aggressive strategy is only $6 for a stop loss, and the aggressive strategy is empty on Tuesday. Loss of about $11; fortunately, the ultra-radical strategy can only enter more than $1245-47, reaching the second target of $1,262 and earning about $15-17.
2, spot silver: conservative and aggressive strategy near the $ 16.96 empty single entry, slightly profitable or flat.
3. US crude oil: The conservative strategy is about 48.4 short-selling, with a stop loss of 0.4 US dollars; the aggressive strategy average price is around 48.4, and the stop loss is 0.4 US dollars. However, the technical analysis mentioned that if the oil price breaks the resistance near 48.30, it will rise to around $49.55, and the top US oil hits $49.50/barrel.
4, Lun copper: the overall market volatility is small, conservative strategy wait and see, the radical strategy did not touch the entry point of the empty single; super radical strategy more than 5,600 US dollars to enter the market, basically flat.
5, the euro against the dollar: Tuesday, super-radical strategy near the 1.1050 chase up more than single, reached the target of 1.1140, profit of about 90 points; Wednesday, super-radical strategy plan 1.1117 near the empty single entry, intraday profit of about 35 points, callback The strength is slightly less than expected, the stop loss is about 50 points, and the short position near the 1.1135 of the scheme is entered. By 7:00, the stop loss is about 30 points. If some investors fine-tune the stop loss, they will not stop at 7:00.
6, the pound against the dollar: the market trend judgment is basically correct, conservative strategy wait and see; radical strategy about 1.2950 empty single entry, ending at 7:00, floating loss of about 15 points.
7. USD/JPY: The technical analysis section basically predicts the general trend of the market, but the conservative strategy waits and sees more than a single entry near 112.10, with a stop loss of 40 points; the aggressive strategy near 112.42 is more than a single entry, with a stop loss of about 50 points; Fortunately, the super-radical strategy is about to enter the market near 111.80, reaching the second target of 110.85 and earning about 95 points.
8. AUD/USD: The conservative strategy barely entered the market at the end of the 0.7439 short position; the aggressive strategy was about 0.7430 short-selling, basically flat.
★For details of historical strategy, please see:
Foreign exchange trading strategy on May 8;
May 8 gold trading strategy; May 9 foreign exchange trading strategy; May 9 gold trading strategy; May 10 foreign exchange trading strategy; May 10 gold trading strategy; May 11 foreign exchange trading strategy; May 11th gold trading strategy; May 12 gold, crude oil, foreign exchange trading strategy; May 15 gold crude oil trading strategy; May 15 foreign exchange trading strategy May 16 gold trading strategy; May 16 foreign exchange trading strategy.
Gold and silver trading strategy on May 17; crude oil trading strategy on May 17; copper trading strategy on May 17; euro-dollar trading strategy on May 17; GBP/USD trading strategy on May 17; May 17 Australian dollar against the dollar trading strategy; May 17 dollar trading strategy against the yen.
Due to the website update, the current policy version of May 16 cannot display all the content properly, and can be viewed with the mobile app.
Special reminder: In fact, investors need to recognize that for ordinary investors, most of the time should be based on wait and see, patiently waiting for the best opportunity to shoot, avoid frequent trading is recognized as one of the winning magic. Don't try to catch all the volatility, and don't expect to judge every market correctly.
★The following is the short-term trading strategy of spot gold on May 18:
Analysis: The Trump political crisis that continues to ferment shakes the market, the US bond yield and the falling trend of the US dollar have brought support to gold. In addition to this, the market’s confidence in the Fed’s interest rate hike in June has also been shaken. Still paying attention to the progress of Trump's "Leaking the Door".
From the daily view, KDJ's low gold fork is in good operation. After the gold price 5-day moving average is formed into a golden fork, the big Yangxian line is recorded, and the 200-day moving average is regained. MACD also recorded the golden fork below the zero-axis, unless the gold price fell to 1241. Below the US dollar, otherwise the gold price will continue to rise. It will be a high probability event. If the closing gold price in the day can stand above the 61.8% retracement level of 1264.3 USD of the 1195-1214 USD decline, it is confirmed that the gold price rebound has been confirmed as a market reversal. It is expected to once again test the resistance near the April high of $1295.6.
If the gold price closes below the middle of the Bollinger Band of $1,255, the risk of the gold price returning to the downtrend cannot be completely ruled out. The 50% retracement of the previous downtrend is around 1254.58, and attention needs to be paid to the position support. The current 20-day moving average support is around $1247.12, which is also close to the 200-day moving average.
In addition, the current 100-day moving average has turned head to around $1230.07, and there is a sign that the 200-day moving average of $1246.63 is formed into a golden cross. The current difference is only $16, suggesting that the price of gold is expected to open the mid-line uptrend. At the time of mid-February 2016, after that, the price of gold rose from around $1,230 to around $1,375. However, this factor is only for long-term investment, as the price of gold fell to $1,200 during the shock. nearby.
Relatively speaking, the intraday trading market has a large number of variables. From the perspective of kinetic energy, the price of gold has been adjusted back to around $1,255. It is possible to record the cross star or the Zhongyang line with a small shadow line. The probability of a large Yinxian is small unless the risk aversion is significantly cooled by unexpected news.
(Spot gold daily chart)
From the 4 hours point of view, the long-term moving averages, suggesting that the upside momentum is strong, and there is no obvious short-term peak signal, the gold price is expected to continue to attack, the May 1 high of 1271.29 is the initial resistance. From a morphological point of view, the short-term gold price is expected to form a U-shaped bottom, which is one of the important reversal signals. From the principle of symmetry, the short-term gold price may encounter resistance near 1271 US dollars and ushered in a brief shock and then continue to rise. Short-term support is at $1257.91; $1252.24, further support around $1245.14; $1237.43 near.
(Spot gold 4 hours chart)
Resistance: 1264.30; 1271.29; 1278.36; 1288.55; 1295.60;
Support: 1257.91; 1254.58; 1252.24; 1245.14; 1237.43.
Huitong network short-term trading strategy: do more on dips; cautious short-term.
Conservative investors placed more than $1252-1255 near the stop, with a stop loss of $1,246 and a target of 1,264.30; a further target around $1,271; a mid-line target of $1,278.
The aggressive strategy can enter directly around 1255, with stop loss and target unchanged. In addition, a short-term short position can be considered near $1,271, with a stop loss near $1,276, near the target of $1,264, and around $1,260.
Super-radical investors can also arrange short-term short-selling orders at $1,260-1,262 during the Asian session (before 17:00), with a stop loss of $1,266 and a target of $1,255 (prudent).
Note: Spot silver, crude oil, copper and foreign exchange short-term trading strategies will be updated.
PS1: Readers who like the monk strategy can like it in the comment area, and can also make some suggestions. The small series will refer to the comprehensive reference, which will be partially answered at 17:30-20:30 on the same day; because the strategy contains too many price points, individual editing errors And for the inadequacies, please bear with me.
PS2: This strategy is biased towards short-term and intraday trading. For those who have not touched the profit target overnight, if the investor is sure, he will continue to hold it, and the profit or loss will be fine-tuned or unchanged. If he is not sure, he will directly close the position.
(The views in this article are for reference only, please refer to the actual data for actual transactions.) For more economic data, please refer to [Financial Calendar].
For the fluctuation of financial market trends before and after the data release, please refer to Huitong.com: (Huitong Newsletter - to bring you the most detailed financial market information)
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